2008 Oscar Predictions

With 5 days left until the 80th Academy Awards presentation, I thought I'd just run down my predictions for the major categories. Traditionally I have picked through the nominations in two distinct ways: Who I expect to win and who I want to win. Sometimes these picks are the same. Other times emotion and an unbending stubbornness overrule common sense. What can I say? I'm still pissed about the lack of nominations for Gone, Baby Gone. But, you've read all that before. If not, click here.

If you need a rundown of the full nominees go here, and if you'd like a printable ballot to keep track for yourself, click here. Now that we've got that out of the way, let's proceed to the picks:

Best Actor:

Want: Daniel Day Lewis. This guy is just amazing. He becomes his characters more than any actor alive.

Winner: Daniel Day Lewis. See above.

Best Supporting Actor:

Want: Casey Affleck. Just can't believe he wasn't nominated for best actor and this is a make-up nom.

Winner: Javier Bardem. Wow, another guy who sells crazy like it's his job.

Best Actress:

Want: Ellen Page. C'mon, have you seen this girl act? First of many nominations I hope.

Winner: Julie Christie. Shoe in. The academy loves mental illness and tons of anguish.

Best Supporting Actress:

Want: Amy Ryan. She absolutely transformed herself to become this deplorable woman.

Winner: Amy Ryan. The competition just wasn't as strong, but Cate Blanchett is dark horse for playing a man.

Animated Film:

Want: Ratatouille. Have you seen this film? it's all heart.

Winner: Persepolis. The buzz on this movie is still high, and it's still playing in theaters.

Art Direction:

Want: There will be Blood/No Country for Old Men. Both are beautiful movies.

Winner: There will be Blood. Dark horse to Sweeney Todd, it is a musical you know.

Cinematography:

Want: There will be Blood. The camera shots in this film are intense, amazing angles

Winner: Atonement. If this film wins in this category, it will be for the one 5 minute long tracking shot.

Costume Design:

Want: Elizabeth: The Golden Age. This film was shot in order to emphasize the costumes.

Winner: Elizabeth: The Golden Age. Period pieces Atonement, and Le Vie en Rose are the dark horses.

Editing:

Want: The Bourne Ultimatum. You've never seen film cuts like this.

Winner: The Bourne Ultimatum.

Makeup:

Want: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End. Those artists worked 24/7.

Winner: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End. Dark horse - Norbit, pirates did have a lot of CGI.

Original Score:

Want: Ratatouille. I just really like that movie.

Winner: Atonement. yeah, that's a typewriter incorporated into the music.

Original Song:

Want: I don't care.

Winner: "Falling Slowly" - Once. The Academy just loves this type of movie.

Visual Effects:

Want: Transformers. It's the frickin' Transformers man!

Winner: Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End. Tons of action, and don't forget all those little crabs.

Adapted Screenplay:

Want: No Country for Old Men.

Winner: There Will be Blood. A lot of work went into this and pullling from different sources.

Original Screenplay:

Want: Juno. With a pen name like Diablo Cody, you can't go wrong.

Winner: Juno. Two words: Diablo Cody.

Best Director:

Want: There Will Be Blood. Paul Thomas Anderson put a lot of sweat and blood in, but it Does plod in places.

Winner: No Country for Old Men. It's the Coen's, and the media loves them. No plodding in this film.

Best Picture:

Want: Juno. It's just the little film that could and I love it for that. Plus, Ellen Page. Can't do anything wrong.

Winner: No Country for Old Men. This one is a coin toss with There Will Be Blood, my money's on Old Men.

Well there you have it. I didn't put the Sound Categories in, but I predict that Transformers will sweep. Unfortunately, I haven't seen any of the shorts, despite the neighborhood theater showing all of them currently. Also, for the first time in years, I've not seen any of the foreign films nominees, and they aren't garnering any buzz in the media. I skipped all the Documentaries this year, even "Sicko", though I think it will win.

If anyone would like to go Head-to-Head with me on winning picks, send in an e-mail and we'll post the results next week.

This is Elijah, and I'm just saying.

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Trailer

It doesn't get any better than this kids! Grabbed from the world premier of the trailer on Good Morning America today.

The Second Wind: The Devil Loves Phillip Seymour Hoffman

WARNING: Rated MA. There is no foul language but strong sexual underpinnings.

Before The Devil Knows Your Dead (heretofore referenced as BTD) is a little known crime drama that is every bit as good as the Oscar winning Capote (Best Actor, PSH, 2006) but hasn’t received near the accolades. Phillip Seymour Hoffman plays the leading roll of Andy Hanson, a near-midlife crises real-estate accountant who is struggling to maintain the comfortable upper-middle class lifestyle he has created for himself and his wife Gina.

Juxtaposed to the old-Irish saying behind the title “May you be in heaven half an hour before the Devil knows your dead,” is every plot element in this film. It’s a suspense-filled seat gripper folks. From the opening moments of sexual exhilaration to the sickening climax of this picture, my stomach was knotted and eyes glued.

One of the intricacies that I felt made Capote such a special project was that as an audience member the actors were able to draw you in to their characters lives and make you care about them, despite all of their fatal flaws. Andy for the most part leads a normal life, works a good job and has the doubts and fears of every man. Yet, in instances where you and I have a conscious to preclude any ill-tainted thoughts from becoming reality, Andy’s desperation outweighs all righteous judgment. What makes for great film is that Andy didn’t just put the last straw on the camel; he slammed down a lead pipe on that dromedary.

Marisa Tomei, a much underrated Hollywood talent, plays PSH’s wife Gina. For a woman of 43 and unlike PSH, she has kept herself in shape and it shows. But who knows with modern medicine. Her beauty could be as timeless as Joan Rivers. Rounding out (whom I am going to call the big four) are Ethan Hawke as Andy’s down-and-out brother Hank and Albert Finney as the stoic Hanson patriarch.

In my opinion, PSH deserved to get another best actor nod for this film but unfortunately I forgot to pay my annual dues to the academy this year. My bad. But, if you do watch this movie, there is a scene that takes place with Marisa in a parked car at the side of the road that will make you sit back in your chair and let out an audible, “wow,” in appreciation of his talent.

Everyone has a list of their five favorite actors and actresses in Hollywood as well as a list of 5 or so famous persons that it’s “ok” to have a fantasy one-night-stand with when you’re already in a relationship. The later really only exists because both of the involved parties know it’s never going to happen, much like fantasizing over what you’re going to do with the $150 million you won playing Powerball. Topping both of my lists is Philip Seymour Hoffman. There is nothing I find sexier than a slightly overweight Irish Catholic man that isn’t afraid to bare it all. That’s probably the reason I have a bit of a man crush on Elijah, but I digress. PSH along with Johnny Depp sit atop my list of favorite actors but the only crush I have is on their range as actors. The whole Elijah thing is not true either, sorry to disappoint big guy. If you haven’t seen much of PSH’s work, I suggest you go to Blockbuster, sit down for a weekend marathon with a few bags for microwave popcorn and let your eyes do the walking.

Hank is somewhat of a departure from the Boy Scout cop roles that Hawke has been taking as of late but if you’ve seen the cult sci-fi flick Gattaca, you know he does have some range. Like Andy, both brothers are in dire straights financially and the women in their lives are really pressing the pennies. Yet, Hank doesn’t know how to act on his feet and where Andy is strong, Hank is weak and at his brother’s coat tails until the bitter end.

TMZ timeout: Whoever leaves Uma Thurman for a very average looking nanny has some serious character flaws of their own.

Tomei and Finney give strong supporting roles, something both have become known for. Even though each character was intense and created the potential for one to dominate over the others in a given scene, I thought the entire cast really gelled nicely together and as whole found a nice balance. My hat’s off to the casting agency.

Not to be left out of this collection of creative contributors, Sidney Lumet provides BTD’s direction. While Mr. Lumet isn’t a household name, he has been around since the Golden Age of Hollywood and has directed such notable films as 12 Angry Men and Dog Day Afternoon. One of the finer elements of BTD is that Lumet makes great use of sequencing. Every major event that takes place is relived through the eyes of those that are affected and, in my opinion, is the enabling factor behind the audience’s ability to connect with each individual character.

A few weeks after watching the movie, I stumbled upon an episode of Inside the Actor’s Studio discussing BTD with Lumet, PSH and Hawke. It was really interesting to get each actor’s off-screen perspective on their onscreen performance. All three raved about working with each other but they gave a lot of praise to Finney, who I have never seen as a major contributor in Hollywood but he has always been there delivery good, if not great performances. You may remember him as the memorable lawyer Ed Masry in Erin Brockovich. As a closet thespian, I always enjoy hearing actors talking about acting.

Side note: I actually watched this movie a few months ago but with its lack of notoriety during the awards season has prompted me to dust off the keyboard.

There are still a few theaters that are carrying this movie, most notably the McMennamin’s Mission Theater on NW Glisan and 16th, but it is definitely worth a rental. If the kids are around, make sure they close their eyes for the opening scene. Especially if you are in Elijah’s house, you don’t want the kids thinking dad is on TV making love to another woman.

Jake

Editor's note: First, the opinions of individual reviewers on the choice of personal consort that a person may be with or not be with are purely that reviewers opinion and may not reflect the board of directors of Skip the Concessions. We do however respect the right of free speech on this page. Second, the editor also respects the rights of reviewers to have a "man-crush". But it will henceforthe be ignored and noted that I have slightly more hair than Mr Hoffman, but only slightly; and I squint less.

Elijah

Gone Baby Gone, back again. On dvd.

I can cite a few Oscar tragedies in recent years, but for this writers money, none beats the atrocity committed this year as Gone, Baby Gone is absolutely shunned in 4 out of 5 catergories that truly count.

The lone nomination this year is Amy Ryan in the Best Supporting Actress group. While she's not a lock on the gold, I give her a 80% chance of standing at the podium. Scroll down three articles and take a look at her competition in the category. Go ahead, I'll wait.

Her real competition to my mind is Cate Blanchett portraying Bob Dylan. First, the Academy loves that kind of portrayal and second, who doesn't love Cate Blanchett. But the Academy truly loves drug addled moms, and this one is a humdinger. Yeah, that's right, humdinger.

My question to the Academy: Did you actually watch Atonement? Did you just see that it was a period piece and throw it on the list? What about Michael Clayton? Are you that much in love with George Clooney that you can no longer see through the sculpted hair?

I'm just a lowly reviewer, deserving of little respect as it's not even my job. Just a passion. I dare you to watch those three movies and not be moved more by Gone, Baby Gone. Gut-wrenched in fact, as the story plays out on the screen. Will Atonement move you? Sure. But not like this. Michael Clayton? Perhaps, after you figure the plot out.

It's a damn crime that Casey Affleck isn't nominated for a Best Actor award. The field is crowded this year with well known names and in fairness, I haven't seen all the movies. So they find a way to make it up to him with the Supporting Actor nom in "The Assasination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford." Which is fine, but doesn't do him justice.

If Ben Affleck is still in the hole with the Hollywood bodies who "count", then he is being done a cruel injustice. Sure he was tabloid fodder and cranked out a couple of horrendous examples of acting in the last few years, but that has no bearing on his directing skills. This man made a remarkable movie. As far as grit goes, this movie ranks up there with an Eastwood directed film. Not that he is "Clint-like", but the dirt is there. The feeling of a true society. You believe the world. It's hard to knock someone off the directing list, but I'd have left Tony Gilroy off the list and let Michael Clayton age on the shelf a bit.

To sum up, "Gone, Baby Gone" was screwed in the following categories:

Best Picture

Best Actor

Best Director

Best Adapted Screenplay

My point? The film is being released on dvd today, Tuesday, February 12. If you missed it in the theater, don't hesitate to pick it up this weekend.

To read my reviews click the following links:

Gone, Baby Gone: http://skiptheconsessions.blogspot.com/2007/11/gone-baby-gone-but-i-may-be-coming-back.html

Michael Clayton: http://skiptheconsessions.blogspot.com/2007/12/michael-clayton-or-is-that-just-really.html

Atonement: http://skiptheconsessions.blogspot.com/2007/12/atonementive-got-nothing-funny-here.html

Oh, and Atonement, you want to talk about a good period piece? Don't even get me started on 3:10 to Yuma. http://skiptheconsessions.blogspot.com/2007/09/go-west-young-man-catch-310-to-yuma.html

I'm just saying.

Elijah

Roy, I hope you're sailing on a bigger boat now...

Acting great Roy Scheider passed over the weekend, he is remembered in the following A.P. article:

Roy Scheider, a two-time Oscar nominee best known for his role as a police chief in the blockbuster movie “Jaws,” died Sunday. He was 75.

Scheider died at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences hospital in Little Rock, hospital spokesman David Robinson said. The hospital did not release a cause of death.

However, hospital spokeswoman Leslie Taylor said Scheider had been treated for multiple myeloma at the hospital’s Myeloma Institute for Research and Therapy for the past two years.

He was nominated for a best-supporting actor Oscar in 1971’s “The French Connection” in which he played the police partner of Oscar winner Gene Hackman and for best-actor for 1979’s “All That Jazz,” the autobiographical Bob Fosse film.

However, he was best known for his role in Steven Spielberg’s 1975 film, “Jaws,” the enduring classic about a killer shark terrorizing beachgoers and well as millions of moviegoers.

Widely hailed as the film that launched the era of the Hollywood blockbuster, it was also the first movie to earn $100 million at the box office. Scheider starred with Richard Dreyfuss, who played an oceanographer.

“He was a wonderful guy. He was what I call ’a knockaround actor,”’ Dreyfuss told The Associated Press on Sunday.

“A ’knockaround actor’ to me is a compliment that means a professional that lives the life of a professional actor and doesn’t’ yell and scream at the fates and does his job and does it as well as he can,” he said.

In 2005, one of Scheider’s most famous lines in the movie — “You’re gonna need a bigger boat” — was voted No. 35 on the American Film Institute’s list of best quotes from U.S. movies.

That year, some 30 years after “Jaws” premiered, hundreds of movie buffs flocked to Martha’s Vineyard, off the southeastern coast of Massachusetts, to celebrate the great white shark.

The island’s JawsFest ’05 also brought back some of the cast and crew, including screenwriter Carl Gottlieb and Peter Benchley, who wrote the novel that inspired Spielberg’s classic. Spielberg, Scheider and Dreyfuss were absent.

Dreyfuss recalled Sunday a time during the filming of ’Jaws’ when Scheider disappeared from the set. As the filming was on hold because of the weather, Scheider “called me up and said, ’You don’t know where I am if they call.’

“He’d gone to get a tan. He was really very tan-addicted. That was due to a childhood affliction where he was in bed for a long time. For him being tan was being healthy,” Dreyfuss said.

He added that Scheider “was a pretty civilized human being — you can’t ask for much more than that.”

I recently caught JAWS on cable just last week; say what you will about clothing and hairstyles, that movie still holds up to this day.

Also, if I can get my wife to stop throwing the children's toys at me, I'm going to keep rewinding the boat scene until my dvr and/or my dvd starts smoking.

Elijah